The Congressional Budget Office released its initial report on the effects of the American Health Care Act, what some have started calling TrumpCare. Many have commented on several aspects of the bill and the CBO’s assessment, but one issue that hasn’t been talked about from the report deserves immediate attention — the fact that the CBO found that the current law, the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”), isn’t imploding.
The idea that the law is falling apart and in need of repair is a popular one among many conservatives, even if it is flatly false. President Donald Trump himself frequently touts the current law as disastrous or a failure, and can oftentimes be seen expressing that opinion on his Twitter account.
ObamaCare is imploding. It is a disaster and 2017 will be the worst year yet, by far! Republicans will come together and save the day.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 13, 2017
Yet the CBO report actually says the opposite. Though the latest report focuses mainly on the economic outcomes of the proposed Republican bill that would eliminate Obamacare, the CBO took a short pause to recognize that the Affordable Care Act isn’t, as Trump would say, “imploding.”
“In CBO and JCT’s assessment, however, the nongroup market would probably be stable in most areas under either current law or the legislation,” the CBO report says.
In other words, were the Trump administration to do absolutely nothing — rescinding the health care bill that they have endorsed, and allow the Affordable Care Act to continue working — it’s likely that any premium hikes seen in the past year would stabilize in the next few years or so as the insurance marketplace corrects itself.
As 24 million people are likely to lose their healthcare coverage over the next ten years if TrumpCare is passed, that might not be such a bad idea.